Meteorologist explains our ‘winter’ weather
Despite some torrential rains early on this winter, SoCal is experiencing La Niña conditions. On the one hand this drier weather pattern hints at the possibility of drought and wildfires later in the year, but on the other it fills our winters with unusually warm days while our friends out east have had nothing less than a brutally cold winter. Autumn Robertson, morning weekday meteorologist of Spectrum News 1’s SoCal team, spoke with us once again—this time to discuss the weather event known as La Niña with its warm, dry winters.
METEOROLOGIST Autumn Robertson, Spectrum News 1.
I understand La Niña brings L.A. winters that are dryer than average.
La Niña years can absolutely impact Southern California’s winters with drier weather, as they have in the past. However, as we’ve seen this year, a dry winter is not always promised! The El Niño—Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short, is a seasonal climate pattern [which includes La Niña]. These pattern shifts do not guarantee either dry or wet winters, but they are usually a great signal for what to expect going into our rainy months. Some La Niña seasons are weaker than others, leading to very subtle impacts.
What is happening in our section of the planet, specifically the Pacific Ocean, to cause this to happen?
To get to the source of El Niño or La Niña, we must head way out to the Pacific Ocean. During La Niña years, stronger trade winds (moving east to west) push warmer water west and cause an upwelling of cold water from the depths of the ocean. The cooler waters can affect the jet stream by nudging it northward. Storms that develop along the jet will go around SoCal, leading to long days of rain-free weather. When those trade winds over the Pacific are weaker, an El Niño phase develops, leading to warmer sea-surface temperatures and the potential for wetter winters in SoCal.
Why would this occur some years and then be exactly the opposite other years?
ENSO patterns switch off every three to seven years, and some years we’re in a neutral phase. It all depends on the strength of the equatorial trade winds. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a transition to a “neutral” phase starting now through April.
We had so much rain early in the winter (even though we say it is a La Niña year). Despite that, it certainly feels extra dry right now. Is that typical?
AUTUMN ROBERTSON receives inside information on weather. Illustration by Finn Walker
The 2025-2026 water year has certainly been one of the more impactful ones on the books, despite technically being a La Niña year. Since the beginning of the water year, between October 1 to February 17, Los Angeles has received a little over 17 inches of rain, which puts us at a nearly 8-inch surplus! This year’s La Niña was particularly weak, so we had a stretch of dry and above-average days with record-breaking storms working their way in between. We must also keep in mind that scientists are actively researching how human-induced climate change can disrupt weather patterns, including ENSO.
Is that why we have had so many unusually warm daytimes this winter? The days still seem to cool off significantly by night.
We can point to La Niña as a reason. We tend to see more record-breaking warmth during La Niña winters. If the skies are clear at night after a day of bright sunshine and warm air, temperatures will fall pretty quickly due to radiational cooling [when land surface cools rapidly at night releasing stored heat]. Plus, we live in a very dry climate. Clear skies and a lack of atmospheric moisture usually lead to chilly nights, despite it feeling like summer during the daytime.
Tell us what you have been enjoying this winter! Hobbies, entertainment, music…
This might be an unpopular opinion, but I’ve been loving the extremities of this winter! I’m a homebody, so I love to curl up with a good book during a rainstorm. I’m currently reading “The Midnight Library,” by Matt Haig, and it’s been a treat to read during a rainy day! During those warmer days, I tease my freezing cold East Coast family with pictures from my hikes at Griffith Observatory, with music from Khruangbin or Olivia Dean blasting through my headphones. It’s been fun romanticizing this topsy-turvy winter weather.
Do you have a spring trip or vacation planned? That’s the question ‘On the Boulevard!”
I’m heading up to the Bay Area for a little food, sports, and fun! The weather is usually still active and cooler up there during the springtime, and the marine layer can be pesky, but it is still beautiful. There’s so much to enjoy in this large state of ours, and spring is a great time to do so!
Category: People
